September 15, 2011


World wheat production expected to reach 678.1 million tonnes



Global wheat production for 2011-12 is forecast to reach 678.1 million tonnes, six million more this month, according to the USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS).


The largest increase is for Canada, where the wheat crop is forecast up 2.5 to 24 million tonnes this month based on an almost 7% (0.55 million hectares) rise in wheat area, and a 4% increase in yields.


Despite many convincing signs of a substantial reduction of seeded wheat area in Saskatchewan and Manitoba due to persistent rains that severely disrupted fieldwork in May and June, wheat area to be harvested turned out larger than anticipated and is up 3.4% for the year. Growing conditions in August were very favorable in the main wheat producing regions in the Prairies, as well as in Ontario, with no early frosts in key growing areas and warm temperatures helping to dry out soggy soil.


EU wheat production is expected to reach 135.8 million tonnes in 2011-12, up 2.3 million this month. Wheat harvesting of the 2011-12 crop is virtually complete, but statistical offices in individual countries continue to compile and revise wheat production numbers.


The largest increase is in Germany, up 0.8 to 23 million tonnes. In France and Spain, official government reports suggest 0.5 and 0.3 million tonne increases in the countries' wheat production to 35 and 6.5 million tonnes, respectively.


Wheat production is expected to be higher in Ukraine, up to one million to 22 million tonnes, as indicated by the latest harvest reports.


The wheat production forecast is up 0.2 million tonnes for both Morocco and Brazil, to 6.1 and five million, respectively.


World wheat supplies for 2011-12 are projected up this month by 7.6 million tonnes to a new record of 871.5 million, more than 20 million tonnes higher than the previous year. This increase is a result of both higher projected wheat production and wheat beginning stocks. World wheat beginning stocks for 2011-12 increased 1.6 million tonnes this month, mainly because of Canadian revisions for the 2010-11 marketing year.


Foreign wheat consumption for 2011-12 is forecast up two million tonnes this month to 642.5 million. Wheat feed and residual use is up 2.2 to 123.6 million tonnes, while wheat food, seed and industrial use is down 0.2 million tonnes.


World wheat ending stocks for 2011-12 are projected to reach 194.6 million tonnes, up 5.7 million this month, 1.3 million higher than in 2010-11. Foreign ending stocks are up 3.3 million tonnes, up four million tonnes on the year and the largest since 2001-02.


The world wheat trade estimate for 2010-11 (July-June) is increased slightly this month by 0.4 to 131.7 million tonnes. Revised information and final numbers from statistical agencies for the July/June international trade year called for export increases of 0.1 million tonnes each for Argentina, EU, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.

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