September 11, 2008


StatsCan stocks report slightly bearish for rapeseed


Large Canadian rapeseed stocks at the end of the 2007/08 (Aug/July) crop year, as reported by Statistics Canada on Tuesday (September 9), combined with expectations for a bumper 2008/09 crop were seen to ensure ample rapeseed supplies during the current crop year.


While the large carryover should put some downward pressure on prices, market participants thought most of the attention was now on this year's production.


Rapeseed stocks, as of July 31, were pegged at 1.541 million tonnes, by StatsCan in its quarterly stocks report, compared with 1.820 million at the same time the previous year. While the stocks were down on-year, they were above average trade estimates.


The larger-than-expected rapeseed stocks should allow for good export movement as the market awaits new crop supplies, according to a rapeseed trader.


Analyst Mike Jubinville, of ProFarmer Canada, said the rapeseed number was slightly bearish, but he also thought the focus would quickly turn back to 2008 production.


Wheat stocks, at 4.817 million tonnes, were well below the 6.803 million tonnes level seen at the same time the previous year, but at the high end of average trade estimates.


Barley ending stocks were pegged at 1.573 million tonnes, up from 1.492 million the previous year.   

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