September 6, 2021


China's hog production to fall 5% in 2022


The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has predicted that pork production in China will decrease in 2022 due to low inventories and a smaller sow herd.


Next year, Chinese hog production is expected to drop by 5%. China's policies will disincentivise small- and medium-scale operations by controlling how quickly pork prices increase.


Large, well-capitalised operations in the country will benefit from other subsidy policies. As fewer small- and medium-scale operations remain in the market, the share of hogs produced by large-scale operations will continue to grow.


Imports of live breeding swine in 2022 will decline by 14% to 30,000 head as pork price management by China's regulatory and planning agencies tempers expansion. However, other policies to develop China's domestic genetics production and improve overall sow productivity will ensure that imports of live breeding swine do not sharply decline.


2022 pork production will decline by 14% as fewer hogs reach market weight compared to prior years. This year, the slaughter of a significant number of overweight hogs boosted pork production and dramatically lowered pork prices during the first half of 2021. Government price controls next year will undermine hog and pork production.


Consequently, Chinese pork exports will fall 10% to 90,000 tonnes.


A tight pork supply in 2022 will drive pork imports to reach 5.1 million tonnes.


In 2021, significant slaughter increased pork production and frozen pork reserves. Higher consumer and institutional demand in the fall and winter months of 2021 will deplete frozen pork reserves.


As such, pork imports are forecast to rise in 2022 as pork supplies tighten.