September 4, 2008

 

CBOT Soy Outlook on Thursday: Up 1-2 cents; stabilizing after recent setbacks

 

 

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures are beginning Thursday's day session firmer, finding stability after recent setbacks amid a lack of fresh news.

 

CBOT soybean futures are called 1 to 2 cents higher.

 

In overnight electronic trading, September soybeans were 11 cents lower at US$12.40 and November soybeans were 2 1/4 cents higher at US$12.53 3/4. December soyoil was 43 points higher at 51.67 cents per pound and December soymeal was unchanged at US$342.00 per short tonne.

 

A dearth of fresh news to direct prices coupled with supportive outside market influences and ideas Midwest rains have been adequately factored into prices have futures poised for some consolidation, analysts said.

 

Lingering concerns surround 2008 soy crop potential with cooler Midwest weather offsetting some of the benefits of needed rain showers are providing underlying support. Tight stock issues remains a limiting factor on downside movement, but waning export demand eases some bullish concerns, analysts added.

 

A technical analyst said the next upside price objective for November soybeans is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at US$13.16 3/4 a bushel, which is the top of Tuesday's downside price gap. The next downside price objective is pushing and closing prices below major psychological support at US$12.00.

 

First resistance for November soybeans is seen at US$12.75 and then at US$13.00. First support is seen at Wednesday's low of US$12.29 and then at US$12.00.

 

The DTN Meteorlogix weather forecast said heavy to torrential rains associated with tropical depression Gustav are expected to move through the central Midwest region Thursday. Cooler weather will slow the maturation process in western areas of the Midwest during the next 3-5 days.

 

In the U.S. Delta, heavy rains associated with Gustav will delay and disrupt the soybean harvest, Meteorlogix added.

 

The U.S. Census Bureau revised its July soyoil stocks figure to 2.780 billion pounds, down from its preliminary estimate released in the July Census crush report of 2.784 billion pounds. The stocks figure is also down from the June figure of 2.893 billion.

 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report, normally released on Thursday is delayed until Friday due to Monday's Labor Day holiday.

 

In other news, global soymeal prices are likely to fall in the near-term as usage of soymeal in the livestock industry has been hit by high prices in the first half of the year, said Peter D. Mishek, director of Omaha-based Ag Processing Inc. Thursday on the sidelines of the U.S.-Southeast Asia Agricultural Cooperators Conference.

 

In deliveries, September soybean deliveries totaled 3 lots. The last trade date assigned was July 30.

 

In overseas markets, China's soybean futures traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange settled lower Thursday, tracking Wednesday's fall on CBOT and in crude oil. The benchmark January 2009 soybean contract settled RMB65 lower at RMB4,172 a metric tonne.

 

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended 2.4% higher Thursday on fresh buying from investors and the perception gaining ground that prices may have bottomed out for the near term. The benchmark November contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR59 higher at MYR2,510 a metric tonne.