Australia's wheat crop, which will be harvested by year end, faces a mixed finish to the growing season after a patchy winter, according to analysts.

 

"The forecast for the crop is positive in the west and the east, but likely to be below average in South Australia" state, with forecasts suggesting national wheat production likely to exceed 20 million tonnes, brokerage ABN AMRO Morgans said in a statement Thursday (September 4).

 

The crop outlook has improved after a rain-bearing weather system last weekend brought, in places, heavy rains to wheat lands in the nation's west and the east, it said.

 

Rain falling Thursday morning local time in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales states, which is forecast to continue into Friday, could further boost the outlook for crops.

 

The latest three-month outlook issued by the government's Bureau of Meteorology, shows good chances of above-average rain in Western Australia and below average rain in South Australia, it said.

 

A successful end to the growing season should rejuvenate rural Australia, with a much needed contribution from above average grain volumes at historically strong prices, it said.

 

The wheat crop was hit by drought in the past two years with below-average production of 11 million tonnes in 2006 and 13 million tonnes last year.

 

The brokerage noted rainfall through winter was generally below average for most of the nation's grain lands, a view reinforced by the bureau's drought statement for August, issued late Wednesday.

 

"Rainfall in August 2008 had little effect in alleviating long and short-term deficiencies over Australia," the bureau reported.

 

Below average rainfall over parts of eastern and southern Australia maintained short and long-term deficiencies, slightly worsening short-term deficiencies in southern Queensland and into northern New South Wales, it said.