September 3, 2008

Recent plans by China's three major grain producing provinces of Jilin, Heilongjiang and Henan to boost grain output would help efforts to maintain the country's grain self-sufficiency level, according to Yang Weilu, deputy director of the National Grain and Oils Information Centre.

Jilin, Heilongjiang and Henan have successively promulgated long-term plans for grain production, aiming to increase grain output by 5 billion, 10 billion and 15 billion kg respectively in the next few years.

Yang predicts that China's total demand for grain will be about 530 million tonnes by 2010, compared to an expected output of 510 million tonnes this year. 

Though China's grain production can ensure supply at present, with the self-sufficiency rate being 96 per cent in 2007, China will face great pressure in domestic grain production and distribution in the future, he said.

The 13 major grain-producing areas in China accounted for 75 percent of China's total grain output in 2007.

North China is increasingly playing a bigger role as the nation's grain supplier, with grains from provinces in the region rising from 36 percent in the 1990s to 44 percent at present.

In contrast, grain supply from South China has decreased from 36 percent of overall supplies to 32 per cent.

Yang recently remarked that grain prices would be heavily dependant on oil prices in the future. A drop in oil supply would mean high energy prices, leading to agricultural products being increasingly used as an alternative energy source, which would in turn push grain prices up as well.