September 3, 2008


2008/09 global soy crop forecast revised downward on unfavourable weather


Global 2008/09 soy crop forecast has been cut by 1.8 million tonnes from its July estimate to 239.5 million tonnes, according to Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World on Tuesday (September 2, 2008).


Despite the reduction, the 2008/09 soy crop would still be 17 million tonnes above the 2007/08 crop.


Oil World said global soy output prospects have been dampened by dry weather during August in key growing areas in the US Midwest.


However, the US 2008/09 soy crop is still expected to rise to 80.9 million tonnes from last season's 72.4 million tonnes due to an increase in soy acreage.


Oil World said South America is suffering from a deterioration that may be far worse than market participants think.


"Central and northern Argentina are suffering from a severe drought - in some provinces regarded as the worst in the last 40 years."


Still, Oil World estimates Argentina's 2008/09 soy harvest to increase to 51 million tonnes from 47.5 million tonnes in last season when farmers planted more to benefit from high prices.


Brazil's soy harvest is forecast to reach 60.7 million tonnes, up slightly from 60.3 million tonnes last season.


Global 2008/09 soy consumption is expected to slightly exceed output at 239.6 million tonnes, and end-of-season stocks are likely to be at 60.8 million tonnes, down slightly from the 60.85 million tonnes forecast at the start of the season, according to Oil World.

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