August 31, 2011

US corn exports may have decreased to eight-year low

Basing on cargo data, the implication is that US corn exports may have decreased to an eight-year low this season.

US corn exports, as measured by cargo inspections, came in at 27.3 million bushels in the week to Thursday (Aug 25), taking the total for the 2010-11 year so far to 1.766 billion bushels, USDA data show.

Making a 20 million bushel allowance for the remaining data of the season, which closes on Wednesday, would put the final total near 1.79 billion, and short of the USDA estimate of 1.825 billion bushels, Darrell Holaday at broker Country Futures said.

"The USDA will need to trim that number for the current crop year," Holaday said.

Such a revision would be welcome news to corn buyers for whom - with stocks viewed near the so-called pipeline minimum below which they cannot effectively fall - any uplift to supplies, even of 35 million bushels, will be keenly welcomed.

The USDA currently estimates US corn stocks ending the crop year, which closes on August 31, at 940 million bushels.

Corn exports at 1.79 billion would be the lowest since 2002-03, in the face of tight supplies and prices which, in June, hit a record just below US$8 a bushel on Chicago's futures market.