August 29, 2008

The US is expected to export record volumes of pork and see strong sales of beef in fiscal 2009, while imports are expected to remain flat, according to a USDA Agricultural Outlook Report released Thursday (August 29, 2008).  

In the upcoming fiscal year, which begins in October, pork exports are expected to rise to a record 1.8 million tonnes, valued at US$4.6 billion.

Strong domestic production will be helped by a weak dollar and competitive prices in key markets, such as China, Mexico, Russia, Canada, and Japan, where demand for US pork is expected to expand.

Meanwhile, beef exports are forecast at 625,000 tonnes valued at US$2.7 billion in fiscal 2009.

The increase in dollar terms for beef is due to higher volumes, mostly to Mexico and Canada, which also are supported by the competitive US dollar. Also, US beef exports to South Korea are expected to gradually increase.

For poultry, higher prices will offset a slight volume decrease, leaving export value unchanged at US$3.2 billion.

However, higher feed costs would affect profits for producers while demand from major markets could soften.

The fiscal 2009 forecast for the meat imports overall has been boosted by US$200 million, to US$12.4 billion.

Beef imports are expected to increase as US cow slaughter declines and the US dollar strengthens.

Cattle and swine imports are expected to drop as fewer exportable supplies are expected from Canada amid lower US prices.