August 25, 2011


Russia to ship 23-million-tonne grain at most



Russia may be restricted to 23 million tonnes of grain exports in the 2011/12 crop year with the amount limited by the country's underdeveloped shipping infrastructure, Russian Grain Union head Arkady Zlochevsky said Wednesday (Aug 24).


"This season we will have a surplus of at least 27 million tonnes of grain, of which we will not be able to export more than 22-23 million tonnes," he said Wednesday.


He said that with carry-over stocks of 20 million tonnes of grain at the start of the current season and estimated crop of 90 million tonnes, the country will not be able to consume more than 70 million tonnes.


Of the remaining 40 million tonnes, Russia will need some 13 million tonnes as end of the season carry-over stocks to last until the new crop grain starts pouring in.


"And even then we will have at least 27 million left. This without counting imports," Zlochevsky said.


The lobby estimates that grain (http://) imports this year may be around 1.5 million tonnes, he said.


Export volume estimates have varied widely, with Zlochevsky saying at the end of June shipments would range from 15-16 million tonnes.


Zlochevsky said the country is expected to have plenty of milling wheat in this year's crop.


"The share of food wheat in a crop has ranged between 62% and 70%," he said. "We will have more than enough milling wheat, even if its share is, for example, not 68%, but 65%."


Zlochevsky did not provide a forecast for this year's wheat crop.

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