August 24, 2011
World's soy stocks to beat forecast
Soy stocks worldwide will surpass projections and keep soy stocks in the upcoming 2011/12 season enough despite a lower-than-expected crop, oilseeds analysts Oil World said Tuesday (Aug 23).
"World ending stocks of the 2010/11 season will be higher than expected at a record 75.8 million tonnes (on August 31), approximately 10 million tonnes above a year ago," Oil World said. This will considerably moderate the prospective production shortfall and result in an increase in total soybean supplies by 7.1 million tonnes or 1.8% to 337.2 million tonnes in 2011/12."
Of the August 31 soy stocks, 6.63 million tonnes are forecast by Oil World to be in the US, up from 4.11 million tonnes in August 2010.
Some 26.03 million tonnes of the stocks are thought to be in Brazil, up from 18.66 million tonnes a year ago and 25.58 million tonnes in Argentina, up from 25.05 million tonnes last August.
Oil World has cut its estimate of global soy production in the new 2011/12 season to 261.42 million tonnes, down 4.9 million tonnes from its estimate in July and down by 3.9 million tonnes against the 2010/11 harvest.
"The biggest decline will occur in the US, for which we are currently using a crop estimate of 84.37 million tonnes which is 1.2 million tonnes above the USDA estimate of August 11," Oil World said. This would be down from 90.61 million tonnes in the previous US crop.
But the high stocks will still permit global 2011/12 soy crushings to rise to 233.30 million tonnes from 222.78 in 2010/11, Oil World forecast.