Strong US pork exports likely to increase production in second half 2008

Expectations of continued strong demand prompted USDA to add 75 million pounds to its estimate of commercial pork production for the second half of 2008.

The forecast is backed by higher-than-expected pork production in July and a 113-percent increase in pork exports on-year in June.

Second-half production is expected to be 11.9 billion pounds, a 4.6-percent increase over the same period last year.

For 2008, commercial pork production is expected to be 23.6 billion pounds, 7.4 percent more than in 2007.

Despite expectations for increased second-half pork production, price forecasts for 51-52 percent lean live equivalent hogs for the third quarter and fourth quarter are respectively 7.3 percent and 21.7 percent above the same period prices last year, thanks to export demand.

First-half 2008 exports total 2.5 billion pounds, 68.5 percent ahead of the same period last year. The weak dollar is expected to continue to push pork exports in the second half of 2008.