August 17, 2015


US soybean sales slump, South America's surge



Soybean sales in the US have fallen and are forecast to be sluggish despite higher stocks, due to competition from South America, whose supplies are at record levels and priced lower, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service said.


The USDA report said that as of the start of August, US outstanding sales for the next marketing year were running at only half the volume observed in the past two years, the slowest pace of new crop sales since 2008. This, despite ample supplies and growing demand from China, according to the USDA.


"The weakening Brazilian real has continued to spur sales while Argentina's exports are up significantly from last year. With record monthly South American exports expected through September, early season US sales are expected to remain sluggish", said the USDA's foreign agri service.


Based on the USDA's trade outlook for 2015-16, the US' soybean exports are reduced to 1.4 million tonnes to 46.9 million, while those of Argentina are up nearly 1.1 million tonnes to 9.8 million and Brazil up 3.8 million tonnes to 54.5 million. Brazil's soybean imports are slashed by 200,000 tonnes to 250,000 on large domestic supplies, while soybean meal exports are to rise by 400,000 tonnes to 15.2 million.


The 2015-16 trade outlook also forecasts China's soybean imports to surge 1.5 million tonnes to 79 million on protein feed demand.


Soybean imports by the EU are forecast to be up 400,000 tonnes to 13.5 milion due to growing demand for protein feed amid lower rapeseed and sunflower production forecast. Soybean meal imports are also raised 200,000 tonnes to 20.3 million to offset lower domestic production of rapeseed meal.


Forecasts for other selected countries:


-- Egypt: Soybean oil imports up 100,000 tonnes to 400,000

-- Colombia: Soybean meal imports raised 100,000 tonnes to 1.2 million

-- Iran: Soybean imports raised 400,000 tonnes to 1.2 million

-- South Korea: Soybean imports up 100,000 tonnes to 1.3 million 

-- Russia: Soybean imports up 100,000 tonnes to 1.9 million on growing demand for protein feed

-- Ukraine: Soybean exports increased 400,000 tonnes to 3 million on larger production.  —Rick Alberto

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