August 15, 2011


US 2012 wheat surplus exceeds July forecast



US wheat surplus on June 1, 2012, was forecast at 671 million bushels, up one million bushels from July's forecast but down 190 million bushels, or 22%, from 861 million bushels in 2011, the USDA said.


The projected USDA 2012 wheat carryover was as expected by the trade.


US corn carryover on September 1, 2012, was projected at 714 million bushels, down 156 million bushels, or 18%, from 870 million bushels in July and down 226 million bushels, or 24%, from an upwardly revised 940 million bushels in 2011.


The USDA 2012 corn carryover number was below average trade expectations near 745 million bushels.


Carryover of US soy on September 1, 2011, was projected at 155 million bushels, down 20 million bushels, or 11%, from 175 million bushels in July and down 75 million bushels, or 33%, from an upwardly revised 230 million bushels estimated for this year.


The USDA soy carryover number was below the average pre-report trade estimate of about 170 million bushels.


US all wheat production was projected at 2.077 billion bushels for 2011, down 29 million bushels, or 1%, from 2.106 billion bushels in July and down 131 million bushels, or 6%, from 2.208 billion bushels in 2010. Total wheat supply was projected at 3.037 billion bushels for 2011-12, down 30 million bushels, or 1%, from July and down 244 million bushels, or 7%, from 3.281 billion bushels in 2010-11, the USDA said.


Exports of US wheat for 2011-12 were projected at 1.100 billion bushels, down 50 million bushels, or 4%, from July and down 189 million bushels, or 15%, from 1.289 billion bushels in 2010-11.


The USDA projected domestic food use of US wheat in 2011-12 at 945 million bushels, unchanged from July but up 15 million bushels, or 2%, from 930 million bushels in 2010-11, and seed use at 82 million bushels, also unchanged from July but up nine million bushels from last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 240 million bushels, up 20 million bushels, or 9%, from 220 million bushels in July but up 111 million bushels, or 86%, from 129 million bushels in 2010-11. Total use was projected at 2.367 billion bushels, down 30 million bushels, or 1%, from 2.397 billion bushels in July and down 53 million bushels, or 2%, from 2.420 billion bushels in 2010-11.


"Exports are projected down 50 million bushels (for 2011-12) with increased competition, particularly from FSU-12 countries, where production prospects are raised," the USDA said. "Projected feed and residual use is raised 20 million bushels, reflecting a continuation of competitive prices for feed-quality wheat and lower projected corn supplies."


The average farm price of US wheat in 2011-12 was projected to range from US$7-$8.20 a bushels, up from US$6.60-$8 in July and compared with US$5.70 in 2010-11.

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