CBOT November soy still in downtrend

November soy futures at the Chicago Board of Trade Thursday (August 14) hit a fresh two-week high of $13.07 a bushel. Prices have made a good recovery from the August low of $11.68. However, prices are still in a five-week-old downtrend from the contract high of $16.36 3/4, scored in early July.

It will take a move above the last "reaction high" in November soy, located at $14.21, to fully negate the downtrend on the daily bar chart. There is strong technical resistance for November soy located at Thursday's high of $13.07 and then at $13.50. Above that lies major psychological resistance at $14.00 a bushel. There is strong Fibonacci resistance located at $13.40, which is the 50% retracement level of the price move from the April low of $10.45 1/4 to the early July contract high of $16.36 3/4.

On the downside, solid technical support for November soy is located at $12.50, at $12.25, at Wednesday's low of $12.12 1/2 and then at $12.00. A close below this week's low of $11.68 would produce serious near-term technical damage to suggest a fresh leg down in prices in the near term.