August 12, 2008


Tuesday: China soybean futures mostly up tracking gains in CBOT



China's soybean futures traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange mostly rose Tuesday on a technical rebound and on Monday's gains in counterparts on the Chicago Board of Trade.


The benchmark January 2009 soybean contract settled RMB6 higher at RMB3,934/tonne, or 0.15%, after trading between a wide range of RMB3,853-RMB3,998/tonne.


Few contracts fell as sentiments remained weak.


Some short-term short-position holders were liquidating, while others with short positions keen on holding for a longer-term were waiting for prices to fall further, said Cui Ruijuan, an analyst at Guangfa Futures.


Possible early frost at the start of September in major soybean producing areas in the U.S. may impact output, analysts said. Soybean prices have been supported by concerns over weak output in the U.S. due to inclement weather.


However, they said the rebound is unlikely to be strong as the U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its August crop report Tuesday 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT).


The market expects the report to be slightly negative, with an average of analysts estimate projecting a crop size of 3.003 billion bushels with a yield of 41.6 bushels per acre. The USDA currently pegs the crop at 3.000 billion bushels using a trend-line yield of 41.6 bushels an acre.


Meanwhile, the main factors putting pressure on the market now are falling crude oil prices and a strengthening dollar.


"The dollar is likely to maintain an upward momentum" as a sluggish U.S. economy has led to bearish performance in other economies and currencies, said an analyst at China National Cereals Trade Corp.


Soyoil futures settled lower while palm oil futures settled mixed.


Corn futures and soymeal futures settled higher.


Tuesday's settlement prices in yuan a metric tonne and volume for all contracts in lots (One lot is equivalent to 10 tonnes):


Contract          Settlement         Price          Change          Volume

Soybean          Jan 2009            3,934         Up   6          1,631,694

Corn                Jan 2009           1,766          Up   6            411,480

Soymeal          Jan 2009           3,246          Up  44         1,141,152

Palm Oil           Jan 2009           7,540          Up  90             34,716

Soyoil              Jan 2009           8,584          Dn  42           489,348

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