UK beef production to decline, imports to fall

Beef production in the UK will contract by two percent to 861,000 tonnes in 2008, while imports are expected to draw down as well, according to the Cattle Market Outlook report by the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. 

 

According to a Livestock and Meat Commission (LMC) bulletin, beef exports are expected to grow, but imports should fall so the overall net effect will be a contraction in beef supplies in the UK to 1,067,000 tonnes this year.

 

The UK will be 80 per cent self sufficient for beef.

 

The production decline was due to a decline n prime cattle slaughterings which is expected to fall five percent to 2.05 million head this year.

 

Prime slaughterings are dropping due to lower calf births in the last two years.

 

Meanwhile, cow and bull slaughterings are expected to rise by 14 percent to 510,000 head, which will partially compensate for the reduction in prime beef output.

 

Increased cow beef production and the weakening of sterling against the euro in 2008 should lead to beef exports growing by 27 percent to 85,000 tonnes, the report said.

 

A current ban on beef imports from Brazil will result in total imports decreasing to 290,000 tonnes.

 

The reduction in beef production and imports in the UK coupled with an increase in exports will reduce the supply of beef on the UK market.

 

Therefore it is expected that total consumption will fall by four percent, with higher retail prices and a economic downturn having possible impact.

 

Beef production in 2009 is also expected to drop one percent to 850,000 tonnes as the prime kill falls two percent to 2 million. Cow and bull slaughterings will grow by eight percent to 550,000 head, but the rise will not prevent total output falling.

 

Imports and exports are forecast to hold at 2008 levels next year. Beef consumption could fall one per cent to 1.055 million tonnes due to the decrease in UK beef production.