August 10, 2011


China's global soy demand shows signs of reviving


China appears to be purchasing more soy on the global market after a long buying lull and the US is likely to benefit, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said Tuesday (Aug 9).


In the first four to five months of the current 2010-11 season, Chinese soy imports had risen strongly, resulting in record soy stocks in Chinese ports, Oil World said.


This reduced soy shipments to China in the first half of 2011 by the main exporting countries including the US, Brazil and Argentina, it said.


"But there are now indications that Chinese buying has picked up," Oil World said.


This is likely to contribute to soy exports by the US, Brazil and Argentina rising to a combined 6.65 million tonnes in August, up by about one million tonnes on July this year, it said.


"We consider it likely that the US will resume exporting soy to China in August," Oil World said.


Oil World forecasts US August soy exports will rise to 0.97 million tonnes against 0.72 million tonnes in July this year but still down on 1.59 million tonnes in August 2010.


US private exporters reported the sale of 174,000 tonnes of US soy to China for delivery during the 2011-12 marketing year which begins on September 1, the US government said.


Stronger US exports will be welcome to offset expected weaker domestic demand.


Oil World warned that weak soymeal demand from the US poultry sector meant US August soy crushings are likely to fall to 3.40 million tonnes against 3.46 million tonnes in July and 3.49 million tonnes in August 2010.

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