August 10, 2011


Brazil soy yield forecast edges more into record level



Brazil's government crop supply agency, Conab, increased Tuesday (Aug 9) the 2010/11 soy harvest forecast slightly to a record 75.3 million tonnes from the previous 75 million tonnes estimate in July.


This was Conab's 11th assessment of the grain crop.


Brazil, which finished harvesting the 2010/11 crop in May, brought in 68.7 million tonnes of soy in the previous season.


Planted area of soy grew 3% from the previous crop to 24.17 million hectares (60 million acres), while output rose 9.6% from the year before, despite the good yields of the previous crop. Productivity this season turned out exceptional.

Conab said the total corn output for Brazil this season would amount to 56.3 million tonnes, down slightly from the 57.1 million tonnes estimated in July. Brazil harvested 56 million tonnes of corn in the previous 2009/10 crop.

The drop in month-to-month estimates was due to "the effects of frost on the second winter planting of corn that hurt output from Sao Paulo, Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul state," Conab said in a release.


Although still a record output, the monthly drop in the agency's estimate was attributed to the earlier than expected onset of the dry season in some of the key growing areas.


Brazil's wheat output for this year was also trimmed to 5.28 million tonnes from 5.45 million seen in July. The drop in monthly estimates was due to the effects of frost on the crop at a vulnerable moment in its development.


Total grain output in Brazil remains a record 161.5 million tonnes, a gain of 8% on last year's harvest of 149.2 million tonnes, Conab said in its penultimate forecast of the current grain crop.

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