August 7, 2008

US hog weights drop; Iowa, southern Minnesota swine down nearly 5 pounds

The average live weight for barrows and gilts in Iowa and southern Minnesota fell again last week to 257.5 pounds, down 4.8 pounds from a year ago, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

Bob Brown, private analyst in Edmond, Oklahoma, said based on USDA data, dressed weights for barrows and gilts on a national basis for the week-ended Aug. 2, the latest data available, were the lowest in five years for that period. The average weight that was reported that week reflected the biggest decline from the five-year average for this year, and the decline from a year ago was the biggest so far for this year.

Market analysts and brokers considered the lighter weights supportive for pork complex prices in the near-term. They also said the recent spell of hot temperatures and high humidity likely contributed to the decline in weights by causing the hogs to eat less, resulting in slowed daily gains. In addition, producers have continued to ship hogs out on a timely basis rather than holding onto them a few days longer to make up for the reduced performance.

Although feed costs are coming down, which normally causes producers to feed the animals longer, the seasonal price trends may be telling producers to ship the hogs on time at the lighter weights, analysts said. Hog prices normally begin a seasonal decline in late summer that extends throughout the autumn and early winter. So, many producers may feel it is to their advantage to ship the hogs a few pounds lighter than normal at this time rather than take the chance that prices might be weaker a week or so later.

The lighter hog weights also mean less pork will be produced, which is considered supportive for wholesale pork prices and the complex overall. A 4.8 pound decline in live weights is the equivalent of about 3.6 to 3.7 pounds less pork on each carcass. On a weekly slaughter of 2.1 million head, this weight difference alone can mean about 7 million pounds less pork available to be sold.