August 7, 2008


US corn, soy yields seen higher than USDA estimate



Both US corn and soy crops have fully recovered from early June flooding throughout the Midwest and could post normal to better-than-average yields, according to a survey conducted by Farm Futures magazine.


After surveying more than 700 farmers, Farm Futures projected average 2008 US corn yields at 154 bushels per acre and average soy yields at 42.5 bushels per acre. This implies a corn production total of 12.06 billion bushels and a soy production total of 3.04 billion bushels.


Based on a July estimate, the US Department of Agriculture currently projects average corn yields at 148.4 bushels per acre with a production total of 11.72 billion bushels. Average soy yields are projected at 41.6 bushels per acre and a production total of 3.0 billion bushels. June yield projections for both crops were trimmed by the USDA in the wake of the damaging floods.


The market now waits the Aug. 12 USDA crop production report set to provide revised yield and production total estimates for both crops.


The Farm Futures' estimate, which was also pulled from agronomic data and crop ratings, comes on the heels of a string of higher yield estimates leading up to the August 12 report. Favourable crop-growing conditions throughout July are largely considered responsible for the bright soy and corn prospects.


Commodity risk management firm FCStone projected yields at 154.5 bushels per acre on Monday, and on Tuesday private analytical firm Informa Economics projected yields of 155.4 bushels, which would be 4.3 bushels above last year and the second- highest on record. Informa estimated total corn production at 12.33 billion bushels.


Farm Futures also estimated planted acreage at 88 million. Acreage estimates will also be released as part of the Aug. 12 report.

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