August 3, 2011


Large global stocks denote ample soy supply



Higher than expected global soy stocks will mean that soy supplies in the coming 2011/12 season are adequate on the condition that the crops do not experience major weather challenges, oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday (Aug 2).


"World stocks of soy are estimated at a new high of 74.5 million tonnes as of September 1, 2011, representing a much larger than expected increase of 8.6 million tonnes from a year ago," Hamburg-based Oil World said.


The stocks plus expected 2011/12 global soy production of 266.32 million tonnes will create 340.82 million tonnes of 2011/12 season soy supplies, it said.


This would be above forecast global soy consumption of 268.8 million tonnes, including 234.9 million tonnes of crushing.

As 2011/12 consumption will probably be above production, global September 2012 soy stocks are likely to fall to 72.0 million tonnes, it said.


Of the September 2011 stocks, 52 million tonnes are estimated to be held by the four main South American exporters Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, it said.


This followed Brazil's record harvest in early 2011 and a temporary slowdown in China's soy imports, it said. "This will result in record large South American export supplies of soy and products in September 2011/Febrauary 2012."

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