August 2, 2011

Global soy output expected to decrease to 263.4 million tonnes

As a result of reduced planting in the US and China, global soy production is expected to fall 1% to 263.4 million tonnes in the marketing year that starts October 1, the International Grains Council said in its monthly report for July.

Due to reduced planting, and based on earlier yields, the IGC expects US soy production to fall to 87.8 million tonnes in 2011-12 from 90.6 million tonnes this year. US soymeal exports may fall 7% to 7.8 million tonnes next year.

A shift in acreage towards corn may drag down China's soy output to 14 million tonnes from 15.2 million tonnes in 2010-11.

The preliminary forecast for India's soy production is 11.5 million tonnes in 2011-12 down from 12.6 million tonnes this year.

Increased animal feed demand in Asia may boost global soy trade to a record 97.3 million tonnes in 2011-12, up 2.9 million tonnes from year earlier, especially in China, where domestic output is expected to fall.

China's soy imports could rise 6% to a record 57 million tonnes in 2011-12, the IGC said. The EU's soy imports are likely to be little changed at 13.1 million tonnes.

Global soymeal trade is likely to rise 2% to a record 60.1 million tonnes.

Reduced rapeseed supply due to bad weather will increase the EU's soymeal imports to a four-year high of 23.6 million tonnes in 2011-12, up 400,000 tonnes from year earlier.