July 30, 2020


Updated forecast sees global pork supply declining 8% in 2020



Agricultural lender Rabobank has changed its global pork supply forecast for 2020 to 8% decline from 5% made at the beginning of this year. This is due to ongoing disruptions in the supply chain, Pig Progress reported, citing the bank's third-quarter report on pork.


"Covid-19 brings many uncertainties to the global pork market", Rabobank said in a release on its website.


Aside from COVID-19, Rabobank cited a couple of other factors contributing to "even more uncertainties": rising geopolitical tensions and unsettled regional negotiations.


"While global pork supply for 2020 was expected to decline by 5%, compared to 2019, at the beginning of this year, Rabobank now anticipates a decline of 8%" Rabobank said in the quarter report released this month.


Most of the decline, it said, will come from China (-17%), as well as the Philippines and Vietnam. The US, however, is expected to register a 1.3% increase.


In the European Union and the United Kingdom, pork production is expected to decline 0.5% this year. Italy will be down 21% and Poland 10%, due to COVID-19 and, in the case of the latter, also African swine fever. Several countries, though, would still post growths, Rabobank said


The Rabobank Five-Nation Hog Price Index, meanwhile, was noted to have dropped so far this year in response to the uncertainties. "In China, imports are slowing down, Europe expects a lower production, and US prices are under pressure due to high hog inventories", Rabobank said, adding that Brazil, however, had higher exports in the first half of the year.