July 28, 2022
Salmon and shrimp aquaculture profits expected to decline
Rabobank's latest global aquaculture report showed that salmon and shrimp aquaculture profits are expected to decline from recent highs, due to weaker seafood demand, price corrections, and increasing input costs, Fish Information & Services reported.
But the report also showed that in contrast, fish meal prices are likely to be supported by the high prices of alternatives.
Demand for seafood is anticipated to decline in the second half of this year. Feed, freight, and energy costs are the main drivers of production costs, and no decrease is anticipated in the second half of the year. While fish meal prices are likely to be supported, both salmon and shrimp prices will decline from recent highs.
In the midst of their respective COVID-19 ecoveries, recessionary dynamics have already begun in the EU and the US. In both regions, the demand for seafood in foodservice will decline, which will result in a return to retail.
The most unpredictable factor in the second half of 2022 is China. As long as import limitations and lockdowns related to COVID-19 are not reinstated, there is potentially significant upside for both shrimp and salmon, particularly in Q4 2022.
Although this year's growth is still the lowest since 2016, the supply of salmon will increase in the second half the year, making up for the supply contraction in the first half.
In the second half of 2022, shrimp supply is anticipated to increase, but at a slower rate as farmer profitability gets closer to breakeven. Despite having a large first season quota, Peru's production of fish meal won't surpass 2021. It is unlikely that good production in other parts of the world will make up for the loss.
- Fish Information & Services