July 22, 2008

 

CBOT Soy Review on Monday: Plunge again; weather attracts speculative sales

 

 

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures ended sharply lower Monday, continuing last week's speculative sell-off on bearish near-term weather and demand outlooks.

 

August soybeans settled 60 1/2 cents lower at US$14.09 1/2 and November soybeans ended 45 cents lower at US$14.03.

 

December soymeal settled US$11.50 lower at US$365.30 per short tonne. December soyoil finished 225 points lower at 61.25 cents per pound.

 

"The day's activity is a continuation of Friday, with beneficial weather for developing soybean crops forecast for the next 10 days and Argentine strike issues solved, enticing market longs to trim some length," said Joe Victor, analyst with Allendale Inc.

 

The unwinding of old/new crop spreads was featured as well, with nearby futures losing ground to deferred contracts on speculation the resolution of Argentine strike issues will bring Argentina back into the world marketplace as a competitor to U.S. grain exports, analysts said.

 

Nevertheless, speculative selling was a key driver of price weakness across the board, as many people - including funds - were overextended in commodities, and the recent down-turn in prices caught people short puts and long futures, said Dan Basse, president of AgResource Company.

 

The absence of fresh supportive news kept buyers sidelined and with periodic showers and no significant heat expected near-term, and slowing export demand, a bearish recipe was provided to keep futures pressured. The active November futures dropped to their lowest level since June 5.

 

Outlooks for crop ratings to improve added to the weak tonnee, with most analysts anticipating a 1 to 2 percentage point increase in U.S. soybeans rated in good to excellent condition. However, Allendale's Victor sees that outlook as overly optimistic, citing rain that didn't provide coverage across the Midwest and pockets of dryness in the corn-belt last week.

 

"We are looking for ratings to hold steady or drop by 1 percentage point," Victor added.

 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its weekly crop progress report at 4 p.m. EDT.

 

The DTN Meteorlogix weather forecast said an active rainfall pattern across the central U.S. is on tap for this week, following a weekend that brought ample amounts of rainfall across the region.

 

Meanwhile, during the last half of this week, a stretch of cooler weather and some shower activity will help to ease stress on crops in southern Illinois, southeastern Missouri, the lower Ohio Valley, the Tennessee Valley and the Mississippi Delta, Meteorlogix reports.

 

In pit trades, buyers and sellers were scattered among various commission houses, with speculative fund selling estimated at 5,000 lots.

 

 

SOY PRODUCTS

 

Soy product futures tumbled in unison with soybeans. The markets plunged on speculative selling, with improved crop outlooks for soybeans and the potential for Argentina to return to the world export area sending negative waves filtering through soyoil and soymeal, traders said.

 

December oil share ended at 45.6% and the November/December crush ended at 74 1/2 cents.

 

In soymeal trades, buyers and sellers were scattered among various commission houses, with speculative fund selling estimated at 3,000 lots.

 

In soyoil trades, buyers and sellers were scattered among various commission houses, with speculative fund selling estimated at 4,000 lots.

 

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