July 16, 2011

Global grain output seen to rise 3%

Global grain output for 2011 is forecast to grow to 2.3 billion tonnes, boosted by a 3% rise against 2010, reported Dmitiy Prikhodko, an economist at the Investment Center of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

Also, it is expected that the general consumption of grain will increase by 1.4%, whereas global wheat production will rise 3%, according to Prikhodko.

The growth in wheat production in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan in 2011 will reach 90 million tonnes.

Prikhodko noted that the share of the countries in the world exports increased from 11-18%.

According to long-term forecasts, by 2020, global wheat production will rise to 740 million tonnes.

According to the expert, by 2020, the nominal price for wheat will total US US$250/tonnes, while the real prices will vary within the range of US US$200-220/tonnes.

Prikhodko noted that in the specified period, the US will remain the leading world exporter of corn, but the countries of the Black Sea region will stay the main wheat exporters.

He forecasted that wheat of Black Sea origin could make up to 30% of the world market.

According to the recent estimates from FAO and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the potential for grain production by 2020 in Kazakhstan will rise by 100%, in Russia - up 64%, in Ukraine - up 103%.

Prikhodko called low rainfall volumes in the major grain-producing regions of Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan as the main constraint to increasing of grain yields.