July 14, 2011

 

Russian 2011 grain harvest to reach 90 million tonnes

 

 

Russia on Thursday (Jul 14) raised its forecast for the present year's grain crop and assured it perceives no need to limit shipments, which are progressing after the removal of an export prohibition at the beginning of this month.

 

Russia's grain crop may reach 90 million tonnes this year, up from an official estimate of 85 million tonnes and from last year's 61 million tonnes, First Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov told a cabinet meeting.

 

"Experts give a forecast of 90 million tonnes," said Zubkov, the government's point man for farm policy.

 

Favourable weather at the end of June and beginning of July has prompted leading Russian analysts SovEcon to raise its crop forecast to 87-92 million tonnes from a previous of 82-86 million tonnes.

 

The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) has raised its crop forecast to 87 million tonnes from 85-86 million.

 

A severe drought, unrivalled in over a century, cut Russia's 2010 grain crop from 97 million tonnes harvested in 2009 and forced it to ban exports from August 15, 2010 to July 1, 2011.

 

"The forecast for barley output is 17 million tonnes, compared to 6.5 million tonnes last year and 850,000 tonnes for buckwheat, up from 330,000 tonnes," Zubkov said. Russia had a shortage of these two cereals last year.    

 

Zubkov said the customs had already received requests to clear 6.5 million tonnes of grain for exports, of which the country expects to export 1.5 million in July. Russia already exported 770,000 tonnes of grain between July 1 and July 13.

 

"Exports are proceeding actively and our grain is being exported to 27 countries," Zubkov said.

 

"Traditionally it is being exported to Egypt, Turkey and Israel. But it is also being shipped to European countries," Zubkov said without elaborating.

 

Analysts and producers expected a slow restart of Russian grain exports as major buyers including Egypt were reluctant as Russian officials were discussing prospects of new export curbs.

 

But later Russian grain won several tenders.

 

Zubkov has said Russia might set an export duty on grain if milling wheat prices reached RUB6,500 (US$231) per tonne.

 

But he confirmed on Thursday (Jul 14) that he saw no need to introduce restrictions.

 

"The price situation is stable on the grain market," he said. "The prices are in a range that is comfortable for both grain producers and consumers."

 

Analysts have said that most Russian grain prices fell last week despite winning some export tenders.