July 13, 2011

USDA lowers corn, soy price forecasts

The USDA lowered its average farm price forecasts for corn and soy to reflect increased corn acreage and supplies and reduced soybean usage.

The USDA pegged 2011/12 average corn prices in a range of US$5.50 to US$6.50 per bushel, down US$0.50 on both ends of the range. For the 2010/11 year ending September 1, USDA reduced its corn price forecast to a range of US$5.15 to US$5.35, down from last month's forecast of US$5.20 to US$5.50.

USDA forecast average soy prices in 2011/12 at US$12-14 per bushel, down US$1 on both ends of the range in its monthly World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report. USDA reduced its 2011/12 soymeal price forecast to a range of US$345-375 per tonne from last month's forecast of US$375-405.  

USDA raised its corn stocks and production estimates to reflect expanded acreage in its recent Acreage report, and lowered its soy usage estimate in part to reflect reduced exports to China.

Corn use for ethanol was raised 50 million bushels to 5.05 billion bushels for 2010/11, and raised 100 million bushels to 5.15 billion bushels for 2011/12 to reflect larger supplies and an improved outlook for ethanol producer margins.