July 12, 2011

Russia's grain harvest forecast rises on late rains

Russia's grain harvest is expected to recover almost fully to 2009 levels thanks to late rains, even as quality may be affected.

Analysis group SovEcon raised its forecast for Russia's grain production this year from 82-86 million tonnes to 87-92 million tonnes, citing the "favourable conditions to crop formation" presented by rain in the second half of last month and continuing in July.

Hopes have been further boosted by early results from Krasnodar, in southern Russia, where the country's first harvesting takes place, showing yields at 5.5 tonnes per hectare, compared to five tonnes per hectare last year.

Much of Russia is expected to see a far bigger increase on last year, when the country suffered its worst drought on record, which depressed grains production to 61 million tonnes.

SovEcon's forecast is above that of the Russian Committee for Weather Monitoring's (Rosgidromet) forecast of 85-89 million tonnes, and the Agriculture Ministry's forecast of 85 million tonnes.

"We have a good starting yield in the south of Russia," said SovEcon managing director Andrey Sizov.

At 92 million tonnes, the crop would only be five million tonnes from recovering fully to 2009 levels, despite last year's drought presenting a lingering hangover in hampering autumn sowings last year.

However, the rains, if they continue, still offer some threat to the quality of the crop, in potentially lowering protein and gluten levels.

"As farmers say, rain washes out the gluten," said Sizov.