July 11, 2008

Canada rapeseed yields average, maturity concerns nag at record crop 

Rapeseed crop development in Western Canada has improved in recent weeks despite a slow start, but industry sources still anticipate only average yields.

Uneven germination and late crop maturity were cited as potential yield-lowering risks.

Generally, rapeseed crops are roughly 10 days behind normal development but advanced considerably in the past couple of weeks when many Western Canadian areas saw warm, sunny weather, Chris Anderson, vice-president of crop production with the Canadian Rapeseed Council in Winnipeg, said.

If the weather is good there would not be problems with maturity, Anderson said.

Late crop maturity would increase the risk of exposure to early fall frosts, especially in areas were the growing season is shorter, he added.

Darren Frank, market analyst with FarmLink Marketing Solutions in Winnipeg, said the consulting company lowered their average rapeseed yield estimates to 29.5 bushels per acres, down from an earlier June estimate of 31.0 bushels per acre. Still, this is higher than 2007/08 yields of 26.4 bushels per acre.

Total rapeseed production in 2008/09 was pegged by Frank at 10.25 million tonnes, with an estimated carry-out of 1 million tonnes. The amount is high, he said, a record in fact, but record usage is also likely in the coming year given the way domestic crush levels have been climbing. He pegged domestic crush at 4.7 million tonnes.

The wild card estimates will be export and domestic crush, he said.