July 6, 2011


Global 2011-12 rapeseed crop to fall



The global 2011-12 rapeseed harvest is likely to fall to a three-year low of 59.08 million tonnes, down from 59.37 million tonnes in the previous season, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday (Jul 5).


This was 0.4 million tonnes down on Oil World's previous forecast in June.


"Production prospects have deteriorated in Poland, several Commonwealth of Independent States countries and the US," it said.


In key exporter Ukraine, heavy rain in the past fortnight has damaged the crop and Oil World has cut its forecast to 1.57 million tonnes from 1.62 million tonnes estimated in June, but still up from 1.49 million tonnes harvested last year.


"Some observers suggest that actual production will even fall to or below 1.50 million tonnes," it said. "This will result in smaller than expected exports."


The EU harvest is likely to fall to 18.86 million tonnes from 20.56 million tonnes last year, with crop damage in Poland being added to problems in Germany and Romania, it said.


"The EU's rapeseed production will probably turn out 5 million tonnes or 20% below requirements in the 2011-12 season," it said.


The US crop is likely to fall to 0.85 million tonnes from 1.11 million tonnes, and China's to 11.6 million tonnes from 12.20 million tonnes, it said.


But the picture was better in Canada, where the rapeseed crop is likely to rise to 13.20 million tonnes from 11.96 million tonnes. In Australia the harvest will also rise to 2.45 million tonnes from 2.14 million tonnes, it said.

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