July 4, 2011


IGC ups China's 2011-12 corn output estimate to 180 million tonnes


The International Grains Council (IGC) has raised its forecast for China's corn output next marketing year by 5.9%, or 10 million tonnes, to 180 million tonnes, due to increased planted area.


The revised figure represents an on-year increase of 1.5%, which is smaller than the IGC's previous estimate of 3.7% due to a change in the production forecast for this year, it said in a monthly report.


The IGC has adjusted its output estimate for the year ended September 30 to 164 million tonnes from 158 million tonnes, and for 2010-11 to 177.3 million tonnes from 165 million tonnes, reflecting changes in Chinese estimates.


China's area under corn cultivation will likely rise 1% this year to 31.7 million hectares, as farmers are switching from soy and other coarse grains in response to strong demand and high prices for corn, IGC said.


Planting is nearly complete in China under generally favourable conditions, as widespread rains have broken a drought in the Yangtze River basin, IGC said.


The IGC kept its forecast for China's corn imports for the year to June 30, 2012, unchanged at two million tonnes.


Traders said the country may have contracted that volume of imports already, and actual imports will likely be around four million tons.


The IGC said production this marketing year will almost match consumption, which will be around 3.3% higher at 180.5 million tonnes. It said closing stocks - grain remaining at the end of the season - may rise 2.4% to 56.2 million tonnes.

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