June 26, 2015


Output for EU wheat to fall due to dry weather



Expectations of EU's wheat harvest are falling and could decline further, with worries lingering over less-than-favourable dry conditions as pointed out by Mars, the agricultural meteorology unit of the European Commission.


The unit warned that crop growth are starting to suffer in several regions hit by high temperatures while low soil moisture were seen in a "large belt" of cropland, within western and central Europe. Prolonged conditions could eventually upset winter crop grain filling. 


Since then, Rabobank had reduced its forecast for EU's soft wheat by one million tonnes to a volume of 148 million tonnes.  The Dutch banking company attributed the cut to dry conditions in France and Germany.


Analysis group, Strategie Grains, also downsized its forecast by one million tonnes, to a volume of 141 million tonnes.


So far, Mars had cut its outlook for regional yield of soft wheat from 5.93 tonnes per hectare to 5.85 tonnes. The outlook for rapeseed also fell, from 3.43 tonnes per hectare to 3.28 tonnes.


Owning to inadequate rain over "large parts" of Germany with exception to some northern and southern regions, yield outlook for the second biggest EU wheat producer's soft wheat had been slashed by 0.26 tonnes per hectare to 7.78 tonnes


Another forecast for German wheat output, provided by the country's DRV producers' group, had been reduced by 1.14 million tonnes to 25.77 million tonnes last week. Expectations for rapeseed output were trimmed by 0.21 million tonnes to 4.67 million tonnes.


France, the top grower, could still be afflicted with a slight drop in expectations despite a "higher than average" outlook. Yields for wheat in the country, according to analysis group, Lanworth, may fall lower on the heels of a dry weather in the north.


Overall, French wheat had been given a 85% "good" or "excellent" rating which was actually one down two points week-on-week.


Meanwhile, as more moisture is anticipated to occur in northern Germany and western Poland, an even higher volume of rain is needed to alleviate dryness in these areas, the MDA weather services said. A lack of moisture could also happen in northern France and western Germany.


The situation was "generally good" in Poland despite dryness in the west of the country, Mars reported, noting of wetter conditions in the east.


Elsewhere in Europe, favourable yields are expected in the UK, EU's third largest wheat producer.

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