June 22, 2011

 
USDA reports neutral numbers for most US crops

Planting, emergence and heading of most crops in the US has nearly caught up to average after a very slow start.

This week's USDA Crop Progress report could be called the most neutral of the season.

Corn emergence is now at 97%, compared to a five-year average of 99%. Corn condition was basically unchanged on the week at 70% rated good to excellent, compared to 69% last week.

"The weekly DTN Crop Condition Index for corn (based on USDA numbers) was unchanged at 168 points again," said DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom. "This shows the importance of accounting for all the categories rather than just the good-to-excellent. The top two categories showed a one percentage point increase."

"These numbers will likely be viewed as neutral to bullish for the new-crop corn market," he said.

Soy progress has also nearly caught up to normal, at 94% planted, compared to a 93% average and 82% emerged compared to an 86% average. Soy condition also virtually stood still with 68% rated good to excellent compared to 67% last week.

"Based on the weekly USDA numbers, the DTN Crop Condition Index for soy was calculated at 165 points, down one point from last week and trailing last year's rating for this week also by one point," Newsom said. "This report could be viewed as neutral to slightly bullish for soy on Tuesday (Jun 21)."

Winter wheat heading continues to trail average, 90% compared to 94%, but harvest is racing ahead at 31% complete compared to a 22% average.

Spring wheat planting rose to 91% in the ground compared to 88% last week and a 100% average.

"Given the slow pace of plantings, it isn't surprising that spring wheat emerged (83%) is well behind the average pace (99%)," Newsom said. "The DTN Crop Condition Index rating for spring wheat is calculated at 180 points, a solid increase over last week's 175 points, but still well behind last year's index rating of 199 points. This report could be viewed as neutral to bullish for wheat on Tuesday."