June 15, 2011

 

Global beef output to remain stagnant

 

 

World beef production will stay constant at about 65 million tonnes this year, according to the most current Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) biannual Food Outlook Report.

 

The outlook is underpinned by an anticipated 1% decrease in production from developed countries, which account for around 45% of total global beef supplies.

 

According to the FAO, the steady global beef production for 2011 is influenced by conditions in Australia and New Zealand; with output constrained as both countries rebuild herd numbers. Furthermore, both the US and Canada began the year with low replacement heifer numbers, falling cow numbers and tighter and more expensive feed supplies, all contributing the constrained production outlook.

 

Although the overall impact of the Japanese natural disasters is still unfolding, the FAO estimates the country's beef production to decline by 5% in 2011, with approximately 10% off Japan's total cattle herd impacted by the disaster. In contrast, Brazil is expected to increase production levels, offsetting the continuing slide in Argentinean beef output.

 

Despite FAO predicting increased beef prices through 2011 as a result of limited export supplies and strong import demand, the global beef trade is expected to increase by 2%, to 7.7 million tonnes in 2011. Imports in Asia are predicted to jump 5%, driven by improved demand from Japan, Korea and Malaysia, while beef imports by the Middle East (except Egypt) are also predicted to rise in 2011.

 

The report also suggests that the US is poised to make the greatest export gains in 2011, with the weakening US dollar and the reopening of previously BSE restricted markets expected to drive up exports by 8%. Exports from Brazil are also expected to jump, driven by strong demand from the Middle East and South East Asia.

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