June 14, 2011

World wheat trade forecasts revised higher for 2010-11

World wheat trade estimates in 2010-11 have been revised to reach 128 million tonnes, up 1.8 million this month.

As the end of the July-June marketing year approaches, the pace of sales and shipments indicated several adjustments. Australian exports were boosted by 1.5 million tonnes to 17.5 million, reflecting higher demand for Australian wheat in Asian countries, both traditional high-quality milling heat, and feed-quality wheat that is increasingly used as an alternative to higher priced corn.

Australia had an unusually high volume of lower quality wheat because of last year's flooding. In Brazil, exports for 2010-11 also increased 0.6 million tonnes to 2.5 million. The country is moving its low-quality wheat stocks using export subsidies, selling wheat to Bangladesh, Egypt, and Libya. Ukrainian exports are up 0.2 million tonnes, reflecting early removal of exports quotas. Exports are down 0.5 million tonnes to 7.0 million for Argentina, where the pace of both already issued and currently-issued licenses support this lower number. Canadian exports are down 0.3 million tonnes to 16.2 million. Other changes in projected exports are small and offsetting.

Small increases in import estimates were noted for Turkey, up 0.4 million tonnes, as well as even smaller increases for Algeria, Bangladesh, Brazil, Egypt, Indonesia, Korea, Nigeria, and some other countries. Small (under 0.3 million tonnes) decreases are made for the US, Syria, and UAE).

The US wheat export forecast for the July-June trade year is raised 0.5 million tonnes to 36.0 million (up 20 million bushels to 1,295 million on a June-May marketing year). Census data from July through April 2011 indicate that wheat grain shipments reached 28.9 million tonnes, while May 2011 wheat inspections were 3.7 million tonnes.

Given that flour and product exports on a wheat-equivalent basis will be about 0.6 million tonnes for the year, it will be necessary for June 2010 exports to reach just 2.8 million tonnes to fulfill the 36.0-million-tonne forecast, and the pace of shipments to date supports the increase in US export prospects.