June 9, 2011

World grain trade set to grow 50% by 2030

World grain imports will grow by more than 50% by 2030, because increases in crop production will not be in the regions where population and demand are growing.

US Wheat Associates president Alan Tracy told the International Grains Council's annual conference in London that trade was set to grow to around 465 million tonnes a year from the current 310 million tonnes.

This means the world wheat import trade, which this year is set to be about 112 million tonnes of a 650-million tonne crop, reaching 190 million tonnes by 2030. Corn import trade volumes are likely to rise from 34.2 million tonnes to more than 75 million tonnes and soy trade from 93 million tonnes to 150 million tonnes.

These increases had major implications for all in the grain trade and for governments.

"No one area can meet that demand, not even the Black Sea," said Tracy. "Higher price volatility would call for better risk management and supply chain relationships." He encouraged buyers to form close relationships to ensure they had first call on supplies when times got tight. The increase in the volume of trade would also put pressure on shippers and a strain on handling facilities.