June 9, 2011
Drought to slash French wheat exports by 30%
France's soft wheat shipments are to slump by nearly one-third thanks to drought and renewed competition from the Black Sea, demoting the EU's top grains producer in the world exporters' table.
The country will export 14 million tonnes of soft wheat and flour in 2011-12, including six million tonnes outside the EU, French farm office FranceAgriMer said in its first estimates for the forthcoming crop year.
The estimate compares with a forecast for 2010-11 revised upwards again, by 300,000 tonnes to 20.4 million tonnes, thanks in particular to better prospects for non-EU sales.
France is believed to have been the winner of an Algerian tender of 600,000-650,000 tonnes sealed late last week at about US$366 a tonne, including freight.
Next season's reduced prospects reflect the impact on production of a March-to-May period rated by national weather forecasters as the driest in 50 years, and the hottest since 1900.
FranceAgriMer forecast domestic soft wheat production tumbling to a four-year low of 31 million tonnes from 35.6 million tonnes in 2010. The yield will, at 6.15 tonnes per hectare, fell by 15%. The output estimate is in line with that from private forecasters.
Officials also noted the raised competition from Black Sea exporters, now that they have lifted export curbs introduced following drought-hit 2010 harvests.
"We are going to return to a more normal year due to the presence of competitors," FranceAgriMer official Christian Vanier said.
The office quoted estimates from CIC that Russian wheat exports will recover to nine million tonnes in 2011-12, down from four m tonnes in the current season, with Ukraine's rebounding from 3.8 million tonnes to 10 million tonnes.
The USDA, which is due on Thursday (Jun 9) to release fresh estimates for world crops, currently sees Russian shipments at 10 million tonnes next season, and Ukraine's at 8.5 million tonnes.
Reduced competition from Black Sea producers has fuelled the 2.4 million-tonne rise forecast for French soft wheat shipments in 2010-11, enough to give the country second place among world exporters of the grain even excluding the 2.3 million tonnes of hard wheat it expect to sell abroad too.
However, in 2011-12 Canada and, potentially, Australia could overtake France in shipments.