June 8, 2015

Philippine scientists predict 44% decline in corn production in 2020

Corn output five years from now is predicted to decline by 44% and by 35% in 2030.

These predictions were made by a team of Filipino scientists led by Dr. Orlando F. Balderama of the Isabela State University College of Engineering, which analysed the total impact of temperature, rainfall, soil chemistry and fertility, among other factors, using an advanced computer system.

Balderama discussed their research during the Information and Computer Technology Asia workshop held at the Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (Searca) in Los Baños town, Laguna province, in the Philippines recently.

Dr. Gil C. Saguiguit Jr., Searca director, said the research is the first made by an academic team to come out with a long-term corn yield prediction.

Saguiguit also noted that the research team simulated crop yields using climate modelling and feeding of data on fertility rainfall and temperature using historical trends.

The model used by the team in coming up with the predictions had high accuracy of from 91% to 98% for the calibration process and 86%-97% for the validation process.