June 7, 2021

Stable European pork production expected this year



Europe's pork production should remain stable in 2021, but the situation will vary from country to country, according to the French Pork Institute's (IFIP) outlook.


The institute's assumptions were based on structural market factors (inventory, production trends and consumption trends) and cyclical factors (the COVID-19 crisis, presence of African swine fever in Germany and evolution of demand from Asian markets).


Based on IFIP's outlook, international demand is expected to increase, especially from East Asian markets. European exports to third markets are expected to increase by 14.5% in 2021 compared to 2020, with a strong boost in the first half of the year.


Considering these factors, pork prices should gradually increase in comparison to 2020, especially from the second half of the year onwards. In France, the price of SE class pork (> 55% lean) would be €1.63 /kg (US$1.98) on average per year, a higher level than in 2020. The increase should be significant in the third and fourth quarters (+17% and +14% in 2021/20, respectively).


The price forecast for pork in France remains dependent on the control of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the ASF situation in Germany.


- Nota de Coyuntura - IFIP (France)