May 29, 2023
China's demand for meat to rise by 28 million tonnes by 2033
The demand for meat in China has been forecast to grow by 28 million tonnes by 2033, according to research from China Futures.
Speaking at a European Meat Trade Seminar hosted by Bord Bia during its recent trade mission to Shanghai, China, chief analyst of the livestock and meat industry for China Futures, Xin Wei, delivered a presentation on Meat Consumption in China to Irish and Chinese delegates in attendance at the seminar. He explained the scale of the Chinese market and noted the population of China is approximately 288 times larger than the population of Ireland.
The guest speaker said that China is the largest meat producer in the world and that in 2022, meat production in the country reached 92.27 million tonnes. He added that in the past 10 years, China's total meat production has accounted for about 25% of the world's total production, and that more than 40% of the world's pork is produced and consumed in the country.
Xin outlined in his presentation that from 2013 to 2021, pork consumption dropped from approximately 49-46% while poultry and beef consumption rose from 18% and 4% to 22% and 4.5%, respectively. Despite pig prices having recovered to some level in Ireland, pig farming profitability in the country is currently at its largest loss level in almost 10 years, according to the analysis.
Chinese meat consumption is still lower than in Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries with the exception of pork. It is expected that meat consumption in the country will grow to about 80kg/capita. This figure is currently at approximately 60kg/capita.
The expected growth rate in meat consumption is 2.5% per year which is actually slightly lower than the current growth rate of 2.8%.
For a population of 1.4 billion people, a 20kg increase in meat consumption/person/year over the coming 10 years would increase meat consumption in China by 28 million tonnes by 2033.