May 7, 2015


Black Sea holds 23% of grain trade but output, exports to fall next season



The Black Sea region continues to hold a big piece of pie in the international grain trade, with its share in global corn exports at 40% during the 2014/15 period, according to Elena Loshkareva, a UKAgroConsult analyst.


The region, comprising of Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan, amongst other countries, continues to dominate over the trade despite rising exports worldwide, increased competition and export restrictions in Russia. 


Speaking at the XII International Conference 'Black Sea Grain-2015', Loshkareva revealed that the Black Sea's share of the world's grain trade was about 23% this season. The percentage is close to a record figure in the 2011-12 season.


In addition, booming outputs in Ukraine and Russia have raised the region's contribution to corn exports around the world, a trend also supported by a positive international demand.


On the downside, overall grain output in the Black Sea region could reach about 164 million tonnes in 2015, a volume that is 17 million tonnes lower than the current season.

The outcome of production would be determined by weather conditions, currency fluctuations, state export regulations, and increased competition between Black Sea nations.


Also falling are total grain exports from Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan. According to initial estimates, the delivery volume for the 2015-16 season is 64 million tonnes which is six million tonnes lesser than the current season. 


In the meantime, grain harvest in Ukraine is expected to reach about 52.53 million tonnes. Russia will record 97 million tonnes in volume, and Kazakhstan, at 16-17 million tonnes based on the 'average long-term'.

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