April 21, 2016


USDA: Global production of pig meat to decline 1% in 2016



The US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) latest forecast sees the global pig meat production this year decreasing by 1% from last year to 109.3 million tonnes, according to AHDB Pork, a division of the UK's Agriculture & Horticulture Development Board.


The decrease is due to an expected 3% decrease in production in China, which is the world's largest pig meat producer. The USDA in October last year predicted an increase year-on-year, but said the outlook has now changed due to a slowdown in China's economic growth, poor producer profitability last year, and issues surrounding its environmental regulations.


The USDA also forecasts that EU pig meat production would also be down 1% to 23.2 million from 2015 as low pig prices caused a contraction of the EU pig herd.


US production, however, is forecast to increase further by 2% year-on-year to a record level of 11.3 million tonnes. Outputs in Russia and Brazil are also forecast to increase, by 3% and 2% respectively.




Global pork exports are forecast to increase 6% year-on-year in 2016, to 7.6 million tonnes, driven by increased shipments from the EU and the US.


US exports are forecast to increase by 5% year-on-year to 2.4 million tonnes, while EU exports are expected to outpace the US for the second consecutive year, increasing by 9% to 2.6 million tonnes.




Shipments of pig meat to the world's largest importer, Japan, are expected to increase by 4% year-on-year to 1.3 million tonnes.


Demand for imported pig meat from China, South Korea and Mexico is also expected to increase sharply, pushing total global imports up 8% year-on-year.
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