April 15, 2025

 

Characteristics and implications of changes in China's feed industry in 2024

 

Whether it is the feed production volume announced by the Chinese government or China's feed consumption volume for 2024 as calculated by Yihuinong, both show a consistent decline, marking an end to the years-long growth trend in the feed industry.

 

According to Yihuinong's statistics, China's feed consumption in 2024 was 266.16 million tons, a decrease of 2.01% compared to 2023. Major categories such as pig feed, egg poultry feed, meat poultry feed, aquafeed, and ruminant feed all saw reductions, except for meat poultry feed. This is a very rare phenomenon.

 

The traditional feed industry in China, like other industries, has entered an era of capacity reduction and stock competition. Only the niche pet feed sector, with a government-reported production of 1.599 million tons, saw a 9.3% year-on-year increase.

 

Pig feed, which occupies half of the market, was hit by both long-term and deep losses in Chinese pig farming in 2023 and diseases at the end of the year, leading to a 6% year-on-year decrease in pig feed consumption in the first half of 2024. Although pig farming gradually recovered in the second half of the year, it only partially offset the losses, the main factor in the decline of China's feed production.

 

Data from 41 large groups with millions of tons of production (or close to such a figure) shows that the total pig feed production of these large groups also decreased in 2024, albeit with a less acute decline. These large groups diverged in 2024, with Muyuan, Wens, and Dekang seeing stable increases in pig feed production. Large groups mainly focused on external sales generally saw a 10-20% reduction in pig feed production, with only a few like Haida and Twins Group bucking the trend with growth.

 

China's egg poultry feed production declined and has been fluctuating for many years, as the egg poultry farming volume has been saturated for years. The only change is the increasing number of large-scale egg poultry farming enterprises with millions to tens of millions of birds, while small-scale farmers continue to shrink. The egg poultry industry in China, like the pig farming industry a few years ago, has entered an era of capital competition.

 

Meat poultry feed is the only category among the major types that saw growth. The number of meat chickens slaughtered in China in 2024 reached a new historical high of 13.55974 billion, a 2.91% increase from 2023, with white-feathered chickens (+2.77%), mixed-breed chickens (+2.51%), and yellow-feathered chickens (+3.26%) showing growth.

 

The increase in meat ducks was smaller. The growth in meat poultry slaughter drove the increase in meat poultry feed. Among integrated meat chicken farming companies, Sunner, Lihua, and Xiantan saw growth. Other large groups with mixed self-use and external sales, such as CP Group, Liyuan, and Cargill, also grew. Additionally, Haida, which focuses on external sales, experienced positive growth, and Twins Group (although with relatively low meat poultry feed production) saw an increase of over 50%.

 

New Hope, affected by strategic contraction, was hit by a decline in production for two consecutive years.

 

China's aquafeed consumption in 2024 has not yet emerged from the trough, although the decline has narrowed. The two giants in aquafeed, Haida and Tongwei, continued to grow (especially Haida) with an increase of over 8%, demonstrating the advantages of synergy and technology.

 

Other groups, that previously produced around a million tons and focused on aquafeed, continued to see declines in production, losing their specialized advantages during the low period of aquaculture in recent years.

 

The continuous decline in dairy prices and weak milk consumption have led to 80% of China's dairy farming industry entering a loss-making era in 2024, with ongoing capacity reduction causing a continuous decline in ruminant feed consumption. Capacity reduction is expected to continue into 2025.

 

With the continuous advancement of consolidation in pig farming and integrated company farming in China, the scale of egg poultry farming is increasing and the integration of meat poultry farming continues to rise steadily. The proportion of bulk feed in China has increased to 49.2% and the use of automated feeding systems has reduced logistics costs.

 

In addition to changes in the consumer production market, the total output value of feed additives in China increased by 7.5% to ¥131.58 billion, with categories such as amino acids (+21.7%) and antioxidants (+7.2%) performing well.

 

Moreover, the vigorous promotion of China's low-protein policy has achieved results, with the average annual price of soybean meal in China dropping significantly by 25% in 2024. However, the proportion of soybean meal used in feed mills (compound feed + concentrated feed) decreased from 13.26% in 2023 to 13.18% last year.

 

In 2025, China's feed industry will enter the second year of stock competition. Under stock competition, it is necessary to drive cost optimization through technological innovation and build long-term competitiveness through digitalisation, internationalisation, and green transformation.

 

About EFL AG-DATA

EFL AG-DATA is a startup incubated by Singapore's Nanyang Technological University's Innovation and Enterprise Company (NTUitive) Incubator Program. It is developing an agricultural hub that will revolutionize the feed-to-meat supply chain in China and Southeast Asia countries through data-driven solutions. EFL's mission is to empower farms through innovative data-based services that solve complex problems and enhance productivity.

 

- EFL AG-DATA