April 8, 2015
Global soybean output to fall two million tonnes in 2015-16
With a falling output of US soybean, global production of the oilseed is expected to drop by about two million tonnes next season (2015-16) for the first time in four years, according to Oil World.
Despite the downward trend, it remains to be seen if the "latest soybean price gains are sustainable", the analysis group said, noting of sufficiency in world supplies which may expand further due to "large opening stocks" in 2015-16. This season, a 34% increase of global soybean inventories could occur, to a volume of 87.7 million tonnes.
Oil World's recent forecast is based mainly on the fact that US soybean crops may decline by four million tonnes year-on-year, to a volume of 104 million tonnes.
Also taken into consideration is a slid in yield from 2014's record highs to 3.06 tonnes/hectare which Oil World termed the 15-year trend figure.
In South America, new record crops could occur in Argentina and Paraguay, and help to offset a lower Brazilian harvest which may fall 2.2 million tonnes to 92 million tonnes.
Brazil is expected to see a stagnation in sowings for 2015-16, coupled with lingering concerns that cultivation will eventually decline due to a slump in soybean prices, high interest rates, inadequate government credit and inflation with the devaluation of the real.