April 5, 2021
Record global grain production expected for 2021/22
The International Grain Council's forecast for world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2020/21 was raised to 2,224 million tonnes, an increase of 2% year-on-year including record harvests of wheat, maize and barley.
Due to increased consumption, projected total grain carryover stocks at the end of 2020/21 are two million tonnes lower m/m, at 609 million tonnes (-8 million tonnes year-on-year). Trade is forecast to reach a record 416 million tonnes (+22 million tonnes year-on-year), with shipments of wheat and maize at records.
Principally tied to bigger outturns in the United States and Brazil, 2020/21 world soyabean production is seen at 361 million tonnes (+7% year-on-year), fractionally short of the 2018/19 record.
With consumption expected to advance, stocks are set to fall for a second successive year, with US inventories plunging after a season of heavy exports. Trade is seen steady year-on-year, at a high of 170 million tonnes, matching the prior year's record. With elevated values likely to result in a significant supply response, world acreage could expand by 4% year-on-year in 2021/22 as output increases to a peak of 383 million tonnes. As total use expands, only a modest recovery in stocks is anticipated, with inventories in key exporters remaining thin. Trade is seen at a new high, with China's imports again exceeding 100 million tonnes.
The council's first assessment of world total grains supply and demand in 2021/22 projects a 62 million-tonne rise in production, to a record 2,287 million tonnes, up 3% year-on-year including new highs for wheat and maize.
Increased food, feed and industrial uses are seen lifting total consumption by 54 million tonnes year-on-year, to 2,286 million tonnes.
At 609 million tonnes at the end of 2021/22, global stocks are projected to be unchanged year-on-year. Including reduced shipments of wheat and barley, global trade is seen declining by six million tonnes year-on-year, to 410 million tonnes.
- International Grains Council.