March 27, 2017
 
China not open to Vietnam pig exports, risk of oversupply emerges
 
An eFeedLink Exclusive
 
 
Price summary
 
Live hog price rose slightly.
 

Procurement price of live hog over 80kg (Expressed in VND 1,000/kg)

 

W1

W2

W3

W4

Dong Nai

32,000

34,500

34,500

36,000

Binh Duong

29,000

31,000

32,000

32,000

Can Tho

32,000

34,000

345,000

34,500

HCM

31,000

34,000

34,500

34,500

Hanoi

30,000

33,000

35,000

35,000

(VND1, 000 = US$0.044 as of Feb.)

 
 
Market analysis
 
In response to the current low pork prices, many locals prefer to deliver pigs to the supply chain of large enterprises, thus helping to mitigate difficulties of farmers and create a stable output. However, this is facing challenges due to pigs not meeting the requirements of the business.
 
A stable output would help farmers to minimise losses. In Dong Nai province, the live hog export to China resumes. At the peak, there are about 35 trucks transporting pigs through quarantine stations at a rate equivalent to over 5,000 pigs per day. Traders mainly collected live hogs from Dong Nai, and a few from the Mekong Delta provinces. However, trading is not stable as China is currently not open to Vietnamese pig exports.
 
Although traders are pushing the purchase of live hogs, especially overweight live hogs bound for export to China, hog prices rose slightly from the previous month. Live hog prices in Dong Nai ranged from VND 33,000 to VND 36,000 per kilo, an increase of VND 2,000 (US$ 0.09) to VND 4,000 (US$0.18) per kilo compared with the previous month.
 
According to the General Statistic Officer, the pig herd of the entire country in February increased from 4.5 to 5.2%, compared to same period of 2016.
 
 
Market forecast
 
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the local industry should diversify into different livestock, and not become too dependent on the development of industrial farming. 'Semi-industrial' livestock production, associated with traditional and organic farming, also requires further development.
 
Currently, swine numbers mostly meet domestic market needs and export quotas to China. However, there is room for expansion into other markets. Overdependence on one market has to be avoided, thus preventing oversupply and a resultant price drop of animals.
 


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