February 19, 2018


Brazil soy production estimate for 2017-18 revised higher, corn lower



Brazil's state crop supply agency Conab [Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento] increased its Brazilian soybean production estimate but lowered that for corn for 2017-2018 crop season.


Conab, in its February Crop Report, said the 2017-2018 soybean crop output of Brazil, the world's No. 1 soy exporter, is now estimated at 111.5 million tonnes, up by 1.1 million tonnes from its January estimate. It is still, however, lower than the 2016-2017 Brazilian soybean crop by 2.2% or 2.5 million tonnes. The 2016-2017 Brazilian soybean crop at 114.0 million tonnes set an all-time record, consultancy Soybean and Corn Adviser Inc. reported.


Conab, meanwhile, significantly reduced its 2017-2018 Brazilian corn production estimate to 88 million tonnes, which is down 4.3 million tonnes from its January estimate. The Brazilian corn crop is now estimated to be 9.8 million tonnes less than last year's production of 97.8 million tonnes.


Despite the drop in the estimated corn production, Brazil is predicted to topple the US as the world's top corn exporter within five years, said Michael Cordonnier, president of consultancy Soybean and Corn Adviser, Reuters reported.


While US corn exports are projected to drop by 6.2 million tonnes in the current marketing year, Brazil corn exports are expected to rise by 1 million tonnes from a year ago, the report said.


The US' proportion of corn exports to total global shipments is also expected to go down from 62.6% a decade ago to just 33.8% in the 2017-2018 marketing year.


On the other hand, Brazil's projected corn exports of 35 million tonnes would account for 22.7% of global shipments, the Reuters report said.