January 27, 2015


Slowdown in US-to-Mexico pork trade as PEDv outbreaks subside


Three years of record pork exports, from the US to Mexico, may be grinding to a slower growth in 2015 as both nations recovers from the deadly Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv), experts said.


Since May 2013, PEDv had reportedly killed an estimated 8.5 million pigs in the US since May 2013, leading to the rush of Mexican buying in 2014.


The viral infection had also advanced to 17 of Mexico's 19 producer states by May last year, according to the USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service.


As a result of the outbreaks, the country's pork prices increased to near-record highs in 2014.


From January – November 2014, US pork deliveries to Mexico rose to 617,000 tonnes and a record of US$1.42 billion in value, a rise of 10% and 31% from 2013, respectively, according to USDA data. The overall 2014 exports should then be 630,500 tonnes, a 12% jump from 2013, said Ron Palin, an economist at the University of Missouri.


Palin expects that 2015 sales to Mexico will be 649,000 tonnes, a minor 3.1% rise from 2014.


In the meantime, the US Meat Export Federation (USMEF) reveals the overall figure for 2014's US pork exports to Mexico at about 680,000 tonnes, an 8% increase from 2013.


It also expects another record year for export volume to Mexico in 2015.


However, a more humbling growth of 1.5% (to about 690,000 tonnes) could be anticipated.

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